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Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Insurance Payouts in Southern India

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Publication date
11/12/2007
Number of Pages
20
Language:
English
Type of Publication:
Working Papers & Briefs
Focus Region:
Asia and the Pacific
Focus Topic:
Market / Trade
Climate / Weather / Environment
Type of Risk:
Market-related
Weather & Climate related
Policy & institutional
Type of Risk Managment Option:
Risk transfer
Commodity:
Other
Author
Xavier Gine, Robert M. Townsend, James Vickery
Organization
The World Bank

Using 40 years of historical rainfall data, this paper estimates a distribution for payouts on rainfall insurance policies offered to farmers in the State of Andhra Pradesh, India, in 2006. The authors find that the contracts primarily protect households against extreme tail events; half the expected value of indemnities paid by the insurance are generated by only 2 percent of rainfall realizations. Contract payouts are significantly correlated cross-sectionally, and also inversely associated with real GDP growth. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for the potential benefits of insurance to households, the risks facing a financial institution underwriting rainfall insurance contracts, and pricing.