HarvestChoice provides data, information and tools to support strategic investment decisions in agriculture. Most agriculture processes are strongly influenced by biotic stressors, such as insects and pathogens. However, available pest information has been lacking, for example, global maps of where pests and diseases could occur have not been available. To address this deficiency, HarvestChoice has developed and implemented an approach to pest modeling aimed directly at supporting strategic decisions in agriculture. The HarvestChoice system includes methods, techniques and tools to both collect primary data on pest occurrence and to model potential global pest occurrence. In addition, a global team of recognized pest and climate experts has been assembled to aid in modeling, validation and peer-review.
The pest modeling system developed by HarvestChoice differs from the more typical monitoring and prediction systems that support short- to medium-term objectives, such as responding to pest events. Rather, HarvestChoice support strategic decision-making by mapping not where pests occur, but where they might potential occur. This approach allows for answers to the hypothetical questions that were previously unanswerable. For example, we can provide broad information on what portion of the world’s crop area could be subject to a pest or what might happen if a new variety were planted in a previously un-cropped location.
The end results of HarvestChoice’s efforts are maps of potential pest occurrence. These maps are produced by modeling a species’ response to factors such as temperature and moisture, while carefully keeping certain other factors exogenous (namely, those factors that might be decision variables for strategic planning). For example, the models are not conditional on the actual presence of a susceptible host, so HarvestChoice’s maps show the potential pest distribution assuming that susceptible hosts occur everywhere, avoiding confounding the host climate responses with those of the pest.