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The Impact of Price-Induced Hedging Behavior on Commodity Market Volatility

Published by:
Publication date
26/07/2011
Number of Pages
32
Language:
English
Type of Publication:
Articles & Journals
Focus Region:
Global
Focus Topic:
Nutrition / Food Systems
Type of Risk:
Market-related
Type of Risk Managment Option:
Risk assessment
Commodity:
Crops
Author
Nathan S. Kauffman, Dermot J. Hayes
Organization
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

The utility maximization problem of a grain producer is formulated and solved numerically under prospect theory as an alternative to expected utility theory. Conventional theory posits that the optimal hedging position of a producer is not affected solely due to changes in the level of futures prices. However, a strong degree of positive correlation is apparent in the data. Our results show that with prospect theory serving as the underlying behavioral framework, the optimal hedge of a producer is affected by changes in futures price levels. The implications of this price-induced hedging behavior on spot prices and volatility are subsequently considered.