Mapping the Likelihood of Introduction and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using Multicriteria Decision Modelling

The objective of this study was to describe the spatial variation in the likelihood of (i) introduction and (ii) spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 on a continental scale in Africa. This report describes the methods used to produce likelihood maps illustrating the likelihood of introduction and subsequent spread of HPAIV H5N1 at both the continental and country level (Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana; targeted countries of the DfID project), and highlights limitations associated with the maps.