Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara

Climate scientists are anticipating an El Niño event in the upcoming boreal winter season (November 2023–February 2024), ending the recent three-year La Niña. In collaboration with USAID FEWS NET and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, IFPRI is hosting a presentation on the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño on the global agrifood system, with special emphasis on low-income countries in Africa South of the Sahara. The event will be organized around four short talks. Part 1 will examine the latest scientific outlook for the 2023 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole climate patterns. Part 2 will focus on El Niño’s impact on global markets, particularly rice markets. Part 3 will provide a sub-national assessment for Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia of potentially affected crops and rural populations. Part 4 will present an economywide socioeconomic impact analysis of El Niño at the national level in selected focus countries, including Malawi, using IFPRI’s RIAPA model. The presentation will conclude with a summary of potential hotspots and proposals for policy options, as well as a review of knowledge gaps, points of uncertainty, and priorities for future research and collaboration.

Overview and Global Implications

• Weston Anderson, Assistant Research Scientist at University of Maryland (UMD) and NASA, Earth Sciences Division
• Karyn Tabor, Agroclimatology Advisor, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Global Markets with a Focus on Rice

• Joseph Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
• Abdullah Mamun, Senior Research Analyst, IFPRI
• Vivian Hoffman, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Sub-National Implications with a Focus on Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia

• Liangzhi You, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
• Liz Ogutu, Policy Analyst, IFPRI

Socioeconomic Analysis for Malawi

• James Thurlow, Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), IFPRI
• Joachim De Weerdt, Senior Research Fellow / Malawi Country Program Leader, IFPRI
• Andrew Jamali, Research Manager, National Planning Commission, Malawi

Moderator

• Channing Arndt, Senior Director, Transformation Strategies, CGIAR and IFPRI